Negotiation, Negotiation, Negotiation

UK Property Investment news and comments from Mark Harrison of

Market Crash – part 2

Posted by markharrison on August 3, 2007

Interesting – had lots of feedback by email. (People – feel free to leave comments) on this one. I’m glad to report that the property investors seem to be a lot more grounded than the Web2.0 “pundits” who have all said the same thing, so time for a little overkill 🙂

“This time it’s different. You don’t understand Tulips. People will always want beautiful things.”

– Tulip Investor, 1636

“This time it’s different. You don’t understand Asia. People will always seek to trade.”

– South Sea Company Investor, 1720

“This time it’s different. You don’t understand land. People will always need houses.”

– UK property investor, 1880, 1989
– Japanese property investor, 1985
– Californian property investor, 2006

“This time it’s different. You don’t understand the Internet. It will change everything.”

– Tech investor, 1999

“This time it’s different. You don’t understand Social Networks. Kids will grow up with this stuff.”

– Web 2.0 investor, 2007

Well, guess what…

People still:

– want beautiful things
– want to trade
– need homes
– use the Internet
– generate their own content

Of course, none of these stopped the first four (eight) crashes…

… but heh, it’s your money.


5 Responses to “Market Crash – part 2”

  1. Lee said

    Sometimes there is a lot more money to be made in a crash situation then a boombing market, I have always been taught that you need three things in order to succeed in property. 1) Hard work. 2)good knolage of valuation and finance 3) Correct Finance Techniques and 4) ho to make a profit out of a slump. Now for that last piece of information speak to your stockbroker and ask him to find out how much it would cost for the furthest date PUT option on The B.O.E. base rate. Therefore you have locked in your interest rate for upto 5-10+ years.

  2. I’m an investor in a company that makes software for Hedge Funds that calculates interest rates swap pricing, so this is “home turf” for me.

    I’m not convinced, at the moment, that Interest Rate futures offer huge investment advantages for the “home investor” – my take is that the market has pretty much priced the impact of future rises into PUT contracts.

    It’s an area where there is good opportunity for arbitrage though, because not many people are doing it.

    Do you know of any “cheap” (ie – cheaper than Reuters/Bloomberg) data feed of that kind of info?

  3. dave belcher said

    Hi, im a simple mechanic, i have a house that i brought at the peak of the last boom, i struggled threw the bad years with it, and now find it to be worth more than i ever dreamed (an ex council house on a poo estate) of. So my mind has been made up, sell the horrible thing and get out of this country once and for all, rent in spain, fix cars in the sun. hopefully the prices will crash over there soon and then buy a nice place. it goes on the market in a few weeks. And the funnything is everyone who ive told has said they wish they were doin the same, keep in touch cus who knows, we might be following soon…………..

  4. David,

    Sounds like a plan.

    As I write this, there’s a big removal van outside the house opposite. They’re off to Portugal (where they’re going to be letting out holiday homes near golf courses) for much the same reasons as you give.

    I don’t think it’s any secret that we’ve applied for Canadian immigration, because we think that would be the best place in the world for our kids to grow up, but there’s a 3 YEAR backlog in processing those applications at the High Comission.


  5. Keith Simpson said

    You know, it’s frustrating. All this money being bandied about, N. Rock losing us billions, that french guy costing his bank billions…all I’m looking for is £1.5M – do you think I can get it anywhere?

    You’ve heard of the North South Divide, well this is the ‘haves and have nots’ divide.

    Ah well….

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