Bank of England minutes – and WHAT will interest rates do next?
Posted by markharrison on July 23, 2008
This morning, the Bank of England published the minutes from the meeting of the MPC on the 9th-10th July.
A few interesting things in there, not least of which is that UK house prices have now falled 8% from their peak, and that mortgage approvals are only being given at 1/3 of the rate they were 18 months ago… but there was a surprise in how the vote went.
Obviously, we knew that the rate was held at 5%, but the voting went:
- For holding at 5% – 7 votes
- For dropping to 4.75% – 1 vote
- For raising to 5.25% – 1 vote
Apart from that, there’s a quote that we may want to hold onto for a few weeks:
A rate change this month would be a surprise at a time when credit and other financial markets remained fragile, and any change in rates would be better communicated alongside the Bank’s August Inflation Report.
Tricky times ahead. Inflation suggests that rates need to go up. Consumer confidence (in both shares and houses) suggests that it needs to come down.
My take on property investment is still “wait and see” – there will be many more great deals around in 6 months’ time.